French Presidential Elections Forecast Model - 2017 2nd Round

An application of WMI Consulting's French 2017 Presidential Elections Model.

Original Tool:  French Presidential Elections Forecast Model - 2017 2nd Round  by WMI Consulting

2nd roundbettingemmanuel macronforecastforecastingfrench electionsmarine le penmathsmodelresults

Description
I wanted to share with you my own conclusions on what the main drivers of the French Presidential 2nd Elections Results will be, after having downloaded, analysed and inputed my own figures in Wmi Strategy Consulting 's model (you can find the original model to download above).

According to me, the main indicators to watch for are the cells highlighted in yellow in the excel file:
- the % of first round Macron voters who will vote again for him in the second round
- the % of Fillon voters who will vote for Le Pen
- the % of Fillon voters who will not show up for the vote, or vote blank
- the % of Mélenchon voters who will not show up for the vote, or vote blank
- the % of Dupont-Aignan voters who will vote for Le Pen

Conclusion: Macron should win 53,1% vs 46,9%

Agree? Disagree? Publish your own version of this model with your figures (or an improved model) on Eloquens: Digital Platform For Self Publishing

- Tim

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