Retirement Simulation Excel Model
Originally published: 08/02/2021 08:33
Publication number: ELQ-97006-1
View all versions & Certificate

Retirement Simulation Excel Model

The Retirement Simulation Model in Microsoft Excel to download.

The Retirement Simulation Model strikes the perfect balance between rigor and ease-of-use. Use this model to get truly customized insights on the probability of your plan for retirement being successful.


✦ user defined historical time periods for determining estimated market return - choose any period from 1928 through 2020 ✦ user defined portfolio allocation % between equity and bonds ✦ historical data based on S&P 500 for equity and 10-year treasuries for bonds - user can choose from 100% equity to 100% bonds ✦ ability to define two allocation strategies: an initial strategy, and one for closer to, or during retirement ✦ based on chosen timeframes and allocations, model calculates customized projected portfolio return (CAGR) and standard deviation ✦ model then uses the projected CAGR for each future year, but applies random normal variability to the CAGR based on the projected standard deviation

✦ ability to adjust income needs (up or down), post retirement ✦ can input irregular / big ticket spending items such as cars or weddings, as well as windfalls such as inheritance or selling a house ✦ input for estimated age of death ✦ long-term-care inputs ✦ able to model for single person or married couple ✦ able to model for social security and/or pension / annuity income ✦ automatic calculation of survivor benefits ✦ input for inflation / cost of living adjustments

✦ set an end-of-life goal for your portfolio value, from "just don't go below $0" to a specified dollar amount ✦ detailed output table showing year by year portfolio value, spending, market returns, and sources of income ✦ 1,000 trial monte-carlo iterations to assess the overall probability of success based on user inputs and variability & sequence of returns ✦ dashboard graphs for single scenario year-by-year ending portfolio balances vs goal ✦ dashboard graphs for single scenario year-by-year sequence of returns vs target - visualize impact of early retirement market performance ✦ dashboard graph showing ending portfolio values for all 1,000 trial iterations, including highlights of key statistics on probability of success

✦ easy data entry & modification✦ powerful dashboard ✦ clean yet detailed year-by-year information

Disclaimer: Calculations in the Retirement Simulation Model (“Model”) are just estimates. Assumptions may turn out differently in reality. No Warranty: The Model and all related worksheets, components, and formulas are provided on an “as is” basis and your use of the Model is at your own risk. In no event shall I be liable to you or any third party for any lost profits or incidental, consequential, punitive, special, or indirect damages arising out of or in connection with the use of the Model. Macros: There is only one macro in the Model. The macro is only to enable the provided “Calculate” button. If you choose to disable macros, you will just need to use the native calculate buttons of your Excel program in order to perform the Monte Carlo iterations. Redistribution: The Model is for the sole personal use of the purchaser. No sharing, redistribution, or commercial use of any kind is permitted.

This Best Practice includes
1 Excel Spreadsheet

Acquire nonprofit license for $45.00

Add to cart

Add to bookmarks


Further information

Easy to input and modify information. Make use of key personal data / assumptions for better accuracy. Market Return modeling rooted in actual historical data. Clear statistical probability output.

This can be used by anybody that is interested in doing an evaluation of retirement. It can be used to piece together what-if scenarios in order to start making a retirement plan, or it can be used evaluate an existing retirement plan to see if any changes may be needed.


  • Be the first to review this Downloadable Best Practice

    Write a review


Any questions on Retirement Simulation Excel Model?

The user community and author are here to help. Go ahead!

0.0 / 5 (0 votes)

please wait...