SaaS Financial Model: 36-Month Forecast with MRR/ARR, Churn, Deferred Revenue, Unit Economics & DCF Valuation

Description
Overview
This Excel model forecasts 36 months of a SaaS or subscription business, month by month, and rolls the results up into annual figures. Every number traces back to one Assumptions sheet. Change the growth rate, churn or pricing, and customers, MRR, deferred revenue, the financial statements, metrics and valuation all update automatically.
Base-case inputs are illustrative (EUR, 2025–2027). Replace them with your own figures, or switch the reporting currency.
Revenue engine

• Customer cohort roll-forward: opening customers, then new, churned and closing customers each month, with the monthly growth % and churn % set separately for each year
• Two plan types: monthly and annual subscriptions, each with its own price and customer mix (e.g. 80% monthly / 20% annual)
• Correct annual-plan treatment: annual plans are billed upfront, recognised monthly as MRR, and the difference is tracked as deferred revenue
• Enhanced (premium) subscription add-on: adoption % by plan type, with a separate monthly and annual add-on price
• Advertising revenue: ad impressions per user × pay per impression
• One-off income streams: grant income and sponsor or service fees, each as dated transactions
• Customer rounding switch (round up or down), so customer counts stay whole numbers

SaaS metrics, calculated monthly

• Period-end MRR and ARR, with growth rates
• ACV (average contract value)
• Gross customer churn and retention %
• Annual users added and churned, and the churn rate
• ARPA, LTV, CAC and the LTV:CAC ratio

Costs

• Cost of revenue: payment processing (% of billings), subscription management (per customer) and hosting (monthly)
• Headcount plan with 20 slots, each with a start date and annual salary, tagged to CoS, S&M, R&D or G&A
• Monthly SG&A budget lines (professional fees, G&A, travel, contractors, legal, accounting, other), each tagged to an expense category
• The expense summary splits costs into CoS, S&M, R&D and G&A, giving a SaaS-style P&L

Balance sheet and funding

• CAPEX by asset class (computers and office equipment, buildings, other assets), with depreciation periods
• Working capital: receivable and payable days, plus deferred revenue
• Debt (drawdowns, term, interest rate) and equity rounds (Seed, A, B, C), plus equity repayments
• Corporate tax rate and payment timing

Outputs

• Monthly and annual Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement (direct and indirect methods)
• Dashboard with annual summaries and 12 charts: revenue mix, cost structure, expenses, CAPEX and more
• Ratio panel covering liquidity, working capital cycle, returns and funding ratios
• Metrics sheet with unit economics
• DCF valuation: FCFF, terminal value, enterprise value and equity value, with a mid-year valuation date and terminal value shown as a % of EV

Built to best-practice standards

• Inputs, calculations and outputs on separate sheets, with colour-coded inputs, formulas and links
• Integrity checks (balance sheet balance, direct vs indirect cash flow reconciliation, schedule balancing) plus a negative-cash alert, all summarised on one Checks sheet
• Hyperlinked contents page
• Fully unlocked, with no macros: every formula is open and editable

Who it's for

• SaaS, app and subscription start-up founders preparing a seed or Series A pitch
• Companies whose revenue mixes subscriptions with grants, sponsorships or advertising
• Consultants, accelerators and investors who need a clear SaaS forecast structure
• Finance teams building a 3-year budget for a subscription product

Sheets included
Title / Contents, Assumptions, Revenue Calculations, All Calculations, Dashboard, Metrics, Financial Statements (Monthly), Financial Statements (Annual), Valuation, Checks Summary, Lookup