Biopharma Business Financial Projection 3 Statement Model

Description
PURPOSE OF MODEL

Highly versatile and user-friendly Excel model for the preparation a of 5-year rolling 3 statement (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) financial projection with a monthly timeline for a startup or existing biopharma business generating royalty and licence fee revenue through the research and development of new drugs.

The model allows the user to model the sale of up to 10 drugs at different stages of development (research, preclinical study, clinical trial, approval and market). The model calculates revenues based on probabilities of the drugs progressing across the different stages. It includes difference research or development costs across each stage, the capitalisation of development costs, staff costs, marketing costs, other expenses, fixed assets, tax, dividends, borrowings and capital changes.

The model follows good practice financial modelling principles and includes instructions, line-item explanations, checks and input validations and incorporates a discounted cash flow valuation calculation using the projected cash flows.


KEY OUTPUTS

The key outputs include:
- Projected full financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) presented on a monthly basis across up to 5 years and summarised on an annual basis.
- Dashboard with:
o Summarised projected Income Statement and Balance Sheet
o Compounded Annual Growth rate (CAGR) for each summarised income statement and Balance Sheet line item
o List of key ratios including average revenue growth, average profit margins, average return on assets and equity and Average Debt to Equity ratio.
o Bar charts summarising income statement and Balance Sheet projections
o Revenue and R&D spend by drug type in table and bar-chart format
- Discounted cash flow valuation using the projected cash flow output.

KEY INPUTS

Inputs are split into Income Statement and Balance Sheet Inputs. Most inputs include user-friendly line item explanations and input validations to help users understand what the input is for and populate correctly.

Setup Inputs:
- Name of business;
- Currency;
- First projection year and month;
- Naming for drug types, staff costs, marketing costs, other expenses, fixed assets and borrowings;
- Sales tax applicability for revenue, expense and fixed asset items.

Actuals Inputs:
- Opening balance sheet (for existing businesses);
- Income Statement actuals (for trend analysis);

Projection Inputs:
- Drug royalty revenue including probabilities of progression to next development stages, months duration at each stage, royalty rates, product demand and credit terms offered;
- Licence fee revenue;
- Research or development spend for each development stage and each drug;
- Other costs inputs including staff costs, marketing costs and other expenses;
- Sales and corporate tax inputs including rate and payment periods;
- Dividend inputs including amount or percentage of retained earnings and frequency;
- Fixed Assets including addition amounts and useful life;
- Borrowings including addition amounts and interest rate;
- Share Capital additions;
- Discount rate inputs (for valuation calculation).


MODEL STRUCTURE

The model comprises of 9 tabs split into input ('i_'), calculation ('c_'), output ('o_’) and system tabs. The tabs to be populated by the user are the input tabs ('i_Setup', ‘i_Actuals’ and 'i_Assumptions'). The calculation tab uses the user-defined inputs to calculate and produce the projection outputs which are presented in 'o_Fin Stats', ‘o_Dashboard’ and ‘o_DCF’.

System tabs include:
- A 'Front Sheet' containing a disclaimer, instructions and contents;
- A checks dashboard containing a summary of checks by tab.


KEY FEATURES

Other key features of this model include the following:
- The model follows good practice financial modelling guidelines and includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations;
- The model contains a flexible timeline that allows for a mix of Actual and Forecast period across a 5-year period. This allows projections to be easily rolled forward;
- Timeline is split on a monthly basis and summarised on an annual basis;
- The model allows the user to model 10 drug categories each with their own unique stage of development, probability for progression to next stages and R&D spend;
- The model is not password protected;
- The model is reviewed using specialised model audit software to help ensure formula consistency and reduce risk of errors;
- The model allows for the following number of underlying categories for each line item (these can be easily expanded if required):
o Drug categories – 10 categories;
o Development stages – 5 stages (2 research, 2 development and 1 market stage)
o Staff costs – 5 categories;
o Marketing costs – 5 categories;
o Other expenses – 15 categories;
o Fixed assets – 5 categories;
o Borrowings – 5 facilities
- Apart from projecting revenue, R&D spend and expenses the tool includes the possibility to model capitalisation of development costs, receivables, fixed assets, borrowings, dividends and corporate tax;
- Business Name, currency, starting projection period and volume units are fully customisable;
- Revenue, cost and fixed asset descriptions are fully customisable;
- The model included an integrated discounted cash flow valuation using the projected cash flow outputs;
- The model includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations to help ensure input fields are populated accurately;
- The model includes a checks dashboard which summarises all the checks included in the various tabs making it easier to identify any errors.


MODIFICATIONS

If you require any be-spoke modifications to the tool, we are more than happy to assist with this. Please send us a message through the Eloquens site or contact us on: [email protected]


ABOUT PROJECTIFY

We are a small team of financial modelling professionals with experience working in big 4 business modelling teams and strong experience supporting businesses with their financial planning and decision support needs. Our aim is to provide robust and easy-to-use tools that follow good practice financial modelling guidelines and assist individuals and businesses with common financial planning and analysis processes.

We are keen to ensure our customers are satisfied with any tools / models purchased and happy to assist with any questions or support required following or in advance of purchase.

We are keen to receive feedback so please do let us know what you think of our models by sending us a message or submitting a review.