Runway Stress Tester (Monte Carlo Edition) - Probabilistic Risk Modeling & Automated Executive Presentations

Description
This Google Sheets-based spreadsheet provides a strategic, probabilistic approach to framing long-term cash flow risk and variance exposure.


It is designed for users who want to move beyond deterministic "best guess" forecasting into enterprise-grade Monte Carlo simulations without the need for complex, overengineered software. The layout separates setup, ongoing data entry, and calculated results so it's always clear where to enter data and how risk narratives are produced.


The spreadsheet allows you to:


• Enter your expected base trajectory and define strict volatility bounds (max upside/downside) for revenue and expenses.
• Automatically execute up to 10,000 randomized iterations using a hidden native JavaScript
engine to find median runway, insolvency probability, and P10 worst-case outcomes.
• View a clear summary of risk zones, cumulative failure probabilities, and statistical outcome histograms.
• Maintain accuracy and structure, and generate a fully formatted, 5-slide executive Google Slides presentation with a single click.


This tool is well-suited for founders, fractional CFOs, and operators who need to communicate financial uncertainty and variance exposure to stakeholders.


No advanced spreadsheet knowledge is required. You enter your assumptions, and the engine handles the calculations and presentation for you. The spreadsheet is designed to be used in Google Sheets, where all functionality works as intended.