Single & Dual-Stream MRF Financial Model — Techno-Economic Analysis & ProjectFinance

Description
Overview
This is a complete techno-economic and project finance model for Materials Recovery Facilities (MRFs) processing municipal solid waste (MSW). Toggle between single-streamand dual-stream configurations, activate or deactivate individual material streams, chooseyour commodity pricing scenario, and get a fully linked financial analysis in minutes:revenue build-up by material, operating costs (detailed or simplified), CAPEX anddepreciation, a full debt schedule, income statement, project and equity cash flows, and areturns dashboard with NPV, IRR, payback, DSCR, equity multiple and a three-scenariocomparison table.
It was built by a practitioner — a chemical engineer and waste management specialist with more than two decades designing, implementing and operating waste treatment and valorization projects — not by a financial modelling generalist. The model reflects how
MRF economics actually work in 2026: processing fees as the revenue base, commodity revenue as the upside (and risk), and labor as the dominant cost driver.


Who it is for
• Developers and EPCs evaluating a new MRF or retrofit project
• Municipalities and public authorities assessing recycling infrastructure investment
• Private equity, infrastructure funds and lenders running MRF due diligence
• Waste management consultants preparing feasibility studies and business cases
• Circular economy startups or operators building an investor-ready financial narrative
• Anyone who needs a credible, auditable MRF financial model fast


What's inside (10 linked worksheets)
• README — instructions, colour legend, stream-type presets and scenario guide
• Inputs — every assumption in one place (edit only the blue cells)
• Revenue — processing fee (always active) + 8 toggleable material streams (OCC, Mixed Paper, PET, HDPE, Aluminium, Ferrous Metals, Glass, Plastic Film)
• OPEX — detailed mode (labor × headcount, utilities, reject disposal, maintenance) and simplified mode (fixed $/yr + variable $/ton), switchable via toggle
• CAPEX & Depreciation — investment and straight-line depreciation schedule
• Financing — full debt schedule with interest, amortization and DSCR by year
• P&L — income statement
• Cash Flow — project (unlevered) and equity (levered) cash flows
• Scenarios — explicit revenue and EBITDA calculation for all three commodity scenarios (Base, Low, High) across all 20 operating years
• Returns & Dashboard — NPV, IRR, payback, DSCR, MOIC, scenario comparison table and three dynamic charts


Key outputs
Project NPV & IRR · Equity NPV & IRR · Simple payback · Minimum and average DSCR ·Equity multiple (MOIC) · Revenue mix chart (processing fee vs commodity, stacked) · EBITDA comparison chart (Base vs Low vs High scenario) · Cumulative equity cash flow (payback) chart · Year 1 and Year 20 scenario comparison table.


Why this model is different
3-scenario commodity stress-test — built in. The single biggest financial risk for a U.S.MRF in 2026 is commodity price volatility — from the China National Sword shock tocurrent EU export restrictions and suppressed plastics prices. This model has Base, Lowand High commodity scenarios pre-loaded for all 8 materials. Switch scenarios with onecell; the Dashboard shows all three side by side so you can immediately see how yourproject holds up under stress.
Single-stream / dual-stream toggle. One file covers both configurations. Dual-stream auto-disables Glass and Plastic Film revenue streams (uncommon in DS programs). Switch with one cell in the Inputs tab.
OPEX built for MRF reality.U.S. MRFs spend 40–50% of operating costs on labor. The detailed OPEX mode models headcount × fully-loaded wage + utilities (/ton) + reject disposal (/ton of rejects).
• equipment maintenance (% of CAPEX). Switch to simplified mode for quick-and-dirty runs. Toggle between the two without breaking any formula.
Lender-ready. Includes the debt schedule and DSCR metrics that banks and infrastructure funds require. Minimum DSCR and average DSCR are flagged prominently on the Dashboard.
Built by an operator, not a spreadsheet builder. Processing fees, recovery rates, reject ratios, commodity price ranges and OPEX benchmarks are calibrated to real-world MRF project data — not text book assumptions.


What you get
Two files in a single download: the Excel model (.xlsx) and a 2-page Quick Start Guide(.pdf). Example figures are included as place holders — replace the blue input cells with your project's real numbers and the entire model recalculates automatically.


Requirements & notes
• Works in Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets.
• Built for 1 construction year + 20 operating years.
• The example inputs are illustrative; calibrate them to your project before use.

• This is a financial modelling tool, not investment, legal or tax advice.