Airbnb / Short-Term Rental Cash Flow Model & Deal Analyzer (Excel)

Description
A self-contained Excel model for underwriting a single short-term rental acquisition. All assumptions sit on one input sheet; seven further sheets calculate from it. No macros, add-ins or external data connections.

Structure: Inputs; a twelve-month revenue and cost build with separate seasonality indices for occupancy and ADR; a Dashboard covering NOI, cash-on-cash, cap rate, payback and break-even occupancy; a five-year levered projection with amortisation, equity and exit; Conservative/Base/Optimistic scenarios; a five-property comparison sheet; and a tax sheet covering lodging tax, depreciation, after-tax cash flow and a refinance scenario.

Two modelling choices worth noting. Cleaning and consumables scale with turnover count rather than time, so short average stays compress margin as they do in practice. Occupancy and ADR seasonality are separate indices — combining them understates peak-season revenue.

Break-even occupancy is solved from contribution per occupancy point against annual fixed obligations. Conditional formatting flags negative and sub-benchmark outputs, with plain-text status flags duplicating every colour warning.
Limitations: single property, single loan. No partnership structures, 1031 treatment or cost segregation. Cash accounting, single currency, no external data feed.
505 formulas, 8 sheets, standard functions only. Excel, Google Sheets and Numbers.