Equity Investment Thesis Builder — Stock Intrinsic Value & DCF Model | Reverse DCF · Margin of Safety · WACC · Sensitivi

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The Equity Investment Thesis Builder is a self-contained Excel valuation model for investors, analysts, and finance students who want to produce a defensible fair value — and a complete buy/hold/avoid thesis — without a Bloomberg terminal.

Enter a company's historicals, forward assumptions, and market data once, and the DCF fair value, the market-implied growth rate, the margin-of-safety entry prices, the sensitivity grids, and the investment verdict all populate automatically.

The workbook ships pre-filled with a fully worked NVIDIA (NVDA) FY2026 example sourced from the 10-K. This is not a single-output template — it is a valuation system built around skepticism. A competent generalist can wire up a DCF that returns a number in an afternoon; the practitioner-level part is knowing when that number is unreliable.

This model makes that explicit: a CAPM WACC builder with four sanity checks, a terminal-value-share warning, a Gordon-Growth-versus-exit-multiple cross-check, and a reverse DCF that tests your growth assumption against the price the market is already paying.

• A 10-year DCF engine (FCFF, mid-year convention, Gordon Growth terminal value)


• A CAPM WACC builder with four live red/green sanity checks


• A reverse DCF that solves the market-implied revenue CAGR from today's price


• A margin-of-safety tab that converts fair value into entry prices at 10 / 20 / 30% discounts, plus a target-IRR max price


• Two 5×5 sensitivity grids (WACC × terminal growth; revenue growth × EBIT margin)


• A holding-period simulator with bear / base / bull 5-year exit IRR


• An AI Prompts tab (6 analyst prompts + 4 that auto-populate with your figures)


• A fully auto-populated dashboard: verdict, fair value, upside/downside, margin of safety, IRRs, and two charts


• A 20-page Methodology & Data Guide explaining every formula, every assumption, and the exact 10-K line behind each pre-fill figure
  
  

1. Cover — disclaimer, license, and full workbook map


2. Dashboard — investment verdict, fair value, upside/downside, margin of safety, IRRs, and two charts; zero input


3. Quick Start — 15-minute setup guide, FAQ, and company-swap walkthrough


4. Company Data — all inputs in one place (historical, forward, and market data); protected, with only the amber input cells editable


5. WACC Builder — CAPM cost of equity and after-tax cost of debt, with four sanity checks


6. DCF Model — 10-year FCFF, mid-year convention, Gordon Growth terminal value, implied exit EV/EBITDA cross-check


7. Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × terminal-growth grid and revenue-growth × EBIT-margin grid


8. Reverse DCF — market-implied revenue CAGR solver (Goal-Seek ready)


9. Margin of Safety — entry prices at 10 / 20 / 30% discount, plus target-IRR max price


10. Holding Period Simulator — bear / base / bull 5-year exit IRR


11. AI Prompts — 6 analyst prompts + 4 dynamic builders that pull in the user's figures


12. Rates — risk-free rate, equity risk premium, beta, cost of debt; feeds the WACC builder
    
    

• Forward and reverse valuation in one file — fair value plus the growth rate the market is already paying for, so mispricing is explicit


• Mid-year discounting and a tapering forecast (growth, margin, capex %, and working-capital % all decline across the horizon) rather than flat-line assumptions


• Gordon Growth terminal value cross-checked against an EV/EBITDA exit multiple, with a divergence flag


• WACC built from CAPM with four sanity checks resolving to a visible status


• Margin of safety expressed as concrete entry prices, not a single point estimate


• Built for backward compatibility: no XLOOKUP, LET, LAMBDA, or dynamic-array functions, so the model runs unchanged on Excel 2019


• No macros, no VBA, no Power Query, no add-ins
  
  

Pre-loaded with NVIDIA (NVDA) FY2026 (fiscal year ended January 25, 2026): on a conservative DCF the model returns a fair value of roughly $95 against a ~$205 market price (June 2026) — a deliberate AVOID that shows the framework separating a great company from a great price. Replace the inputs with your own and every output re-prices.

• Format: .xlsx (single workbook) + 20-page Methodology & Data Guide (PDF) + 2-page Stock Analysis Checklist (PDF)


• Compatibility: Excel 2019, 2021, Microsoft 365 (Windows and Mac)


• Not compatible with Google Sheets (Excel-native by design)


• No macros, no VBA, no add-ins


• NVIDIA FY2026 worked example pre-loaded; replace with your own


• 12 tabs · 400 live formulas · 2 sensitivity grids · reverse DCF · holding-period IRR


• Delivery: instant digital download · single-user license