Simulate the number of Corona virus infections
Originally published: 23/03/2020 08:03
Last version published: 24/03/2020 14:09
Publication number: ELQ-25873-4
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Simulate the number of Corona virus infections

Simulate Corona virus infection rates

The press is full of Corona virus stories and graphs, but what is the basis of the projections? In this tool you can see the effects of exponential growth and simulate the numbers of Covid-19 infections.

Exponential growth
I start out with a simple demonstration of the power of exponential growth using the legendary story of the chess-loving Indian king challenged to play by a savvy merchant who asks for just a few corns of rice as a reward... one corn, doubling for each square on the chess board. The result is astounding!

I define R, the virus reproduction number and how this can be calculated based upon four variables:
D = Duration of infection
O = Opportunity of transmission; affected by frequency of contact with others
T = Transmission probability; affected e.g. by hand-washing
S = Susceptibility; reduced if a vaccine is available
R = D*O*T*S. Therefore, a reduction in any of these factors will reduce infection rates.

Covid-19 infection rates simulation in Excel
I show you how infection rates can be easily simulated in Excel to answer the following questions:
1. Based upon the theory, how many people can a single infected person infect in 5 to 30 days?
2. What is the effect if the frequency of contact (Opportunity of transmission, factor O above) is reduced?
*** Spoiler alert *** It has a dramatic, positive effect... so stay at home and avoid contact as much as you can!

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Understand exponential growth and simulate the number of Covid-19 infections.

User wishes to understand exponential growth and/or simulate the number of Covid-19 infections.


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