Ecommerce Forecast Model

Description
5 year forecasting model for an ecommerce business selling across multiple platforms and with proper inventory accounting across multiple locations.

Timeline: up to 8 year (3 actuals and 5 forecast) rolling monthly and annual model with the ability to enter both actual and forecast data. The model start date and forecast start date of the model are flexible as are the units.

Outputs: Summary financials and margins, Dashboard, fully integrated Financial Statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statement), sales by sales platform and by geographic region

Assumptions:
Ability to enter historic Income Statement assumptions and an opening Balance Sheet on the Actuals tab for the platform asset.
Ability to enter up to five different sales platforms e.g. website, Amazon, eBay, Wholesale etc and up to five different sales regions – e.g. 5 geographic regions or countries, or cities. There is also the ability to combine sales units into different combinations of platform and geographic region.
Enter sales assumptions through three alternative driver methodologies:
- First year sales and sales growth rates thereafter
- First 12 months of sales by month and growth rates thereafter
- Sales by traffic volume, average order value, and conversion rate
Sales are netted off with refunded sales (user defined percentage assumption).

Cost of sales assumptions include commission percentage costs by sales platform, COGS as a percentage of sales by sales platform, commission costs as a percentage by sales platform, pick and pack percentage costs by sales platform, fulfilment fee percentage costs by region, warehouse storage cost percentage by region.

Other assumptions include:
- Other income (entered annually)
- Operating costs (entered annually)
- Marketing costs by sales platform (annual percentage of sales)
- Staff costs (by headcount, NIC and pension percentage assumptions, average wages, expenses)
- Monthly administration costs
- Quarterly rental costs (with a prepayment mechanism)
- Office costs (first forecast year cost with annual growth rate)
- Corporation tax rates
Balance Sheet assumptions include:
- Fixed assets
- Inventory days assumptions by geographic region (days assumptions entered annually)
- Debtor days
- Creditor days
- VAT/sales tax assumptions
- Loan/convertible assumptions
- Director loan assumptions
- Accrued interest assumptions
- Equity raise assumptions