Cohort Optimizer: Advanced Subscription Box Feasibility & Financial Analysis Model
Originally published: 28/09/2023 07:49
Last version published: 08/01/2024 09:26
Publication number: ELQ-98964-2
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Cohort Optimizer: Advanced Subscription Box Feasibility & Financial Analysis Model

Model a subscription box business with up to 6 pricing tiers, comparing various contract terms and pricing feasibilities.

Description
The primary method of making money in this type of business model involves two primary aspects. 

- The amount of monthly recurring revenue customers pay in order to receive curated boxes of products.
- The cost to provide these curated boxes.

If you can properly plan for profitable unit economics in regard to the above two points, there is a great chance of success. This model is flexible enough to handle up to 6 customer acquisition channels, 6 different pricing tiers (with their own contract terms / monthly pricing), and the monthly cost to provide the box for each pricing tier

One of the most difficult, but vital techniques in recurring revenue models, is to understand how long customers stay for. This requires cohort structures that are aggregated monthly. It is the only way to properly forecast the expected churn based on when customers joined and how many joined each month. For each pricing level, the retention can be defined per the average percentage of customers that remain from month 1 to n. This dynamically applies to each month's new customers for each tier.

As you fill out all the assumptions, a complete financial projection will be display via a monthly and annual 3 statement model, DCF Analysis, and annual executive summary.

The templates allows for up to 6 years of forecasting so the user can easily account for a partial start year and then 5 full years of projections after that. The user can easily define the end month of the forecast to be any period within the 72-month potential range. An exit value will populate, if 'yes' is selected for this feature, and is based on a trailing 12-month revenue multiple.

I also included plenty of visualizations and KPI metrics, including LTV, CAC, LTV to CAC ratio, and average customer churn.

This template is also included in two bundles:
- All Models Bundle: https://www.eloquens.com/tool/P8Y4TX4v/finance/financial-forecasting-models/financial-models-120-useful-and-usable-logic
- SaaS / Subscription Models: https://www.eloquens.com/tool/wmyQI0eE/finance/venture-capital/the-complete-venture-capital-bundle

This Best Practice includes
1 Excel model and 1 Tutorial Video

Acquire business license for $120.00

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Further information

Produce a monthly and annual cash flow forecast and financial reports for a subscription box business.

Up to 6 pricing tiers.


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